威廉G. 弗格森| 12/9/2021
钟前 ——美国.S. stock market took a bit of breather yesterday after two very bullish sessions to start the week, though the major averages did extend their winning streaks with additional gains.
今天早上, we learned that initial jobless claims for the week ending December 4th came in at 184,000, pandemic-era低. 股票期货, which were suggesting some profit taking heading into the report, 变化不大. The claims data weren’t expected to have a big impact on trading, but tomorrow’s release from the Labor Department before the opening bell concerning 消费者 prices, along with next week’s companion data on producer (wholesale) prices, 可能驱动交易, as those reports are expected to be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for clues about inflation. 上周, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell walked backed the central bank’s previous stance that inflation will prove transitory, 说它在这里的时间可能比最初预期的要长. If the aforementioned reports show hotter-than-expected readings on inflation, 这类数据可能会提振周期性股票. 这些金融, 基本材料, and energy sectors have historically fared well in an inflationary environment.
道琼斯工业平均指数上涨3点.4% so far this week, putting it in position for its best week since June. The main story driving trading over the last week is the emergence of the new form of the COVID-19 virus, 买卖的变体. Recall that the market sold off sharply last week on fears that the new strain may cause renewed global lockdowns that could slow the pace of economic growth. But the market has since retraced most of last week’s losses after reports surfaced that 买卖的变体 may not be as severe as initially feared. 评论 辉瑞 (PFE) that studies are showing its vaccine is providing a level of effectiveness against the new coronavirus strain also gave a boost to stocks.
上周受到处罚的行业, 对欧米克隆的担忧, 在过去的几个交易日中是否处于反弹模式. 投资者再次把目光转向了交通工具(i.e., 旅行), 非必需消费品, 和能源股, 哪些国家都将从持续的经济重新开放中受益. 石油价格, 对欧米克隆的担忧使其大幅下跌, 从去年12月的低点反弹了15%以上, 这提振了能源股. 在一般情况下, 所有主要行业都有需求, 尽管在防御性较强的领域取得了进展, which usually perform better when stock market volatility is 在 rise, 最近有更节制吗. Investors should note that all 11 of the major equity groups have traded above their 200-day moving averages in recent sessions, 这说明投资者正在再次买入, and maybe using last week’s dip as an opportunity to reshape their portfolios.
The technology sector and small-cap stocks also have done well this week, 尽管债券收益率反弹了一些. The yield 在 10-year Treasury note has currently stabilized around the 1.50%的关口. What actually may be helping the technology stocks is the recent narrowing of the spread between the five-year and 30-year Treasury notes, 从历史上看，哪些因素预示着经济增长放缓. 在一个增长缓慢的环境中, 高增长的科技股通常很受欢迎, as their fates are considered somewhat independent of economic ups and downs. 投资者还应该注意到，过去一周, 在科技领域有一种发展趋势. 具体地说, there has been a divergence in the performances of the stocks based on whether the companies are losing money or are profitable. The stocks of tech companies with negative earnings have mostly been out of favor on Wall Street, 而有利可图的公司则被投资者抢购一空. 没错，这家科技巨头的蓝筹股 苹果 (AAPL) established a new high this week and the company’s market capitalization is fast approaching the $3 trillion mark.
几乎没有经济和收益方面的消息, and Wall Street feeling a bit better about 买卖的变体 situation, the attention of traders may well turn back to the Federal Reserve and its upcoming monetary policy decision. 联邦公开推荐十大正规网赌网站委员会, a group of central bank leaders who set the central bank’s monetary policies, 下周是2021年最后一次见面吗. The expectation following last week’s commentary from Fed Chairman Powell is that the central bank will begin tapering its supportive monthly bond purchases and may provide a clearer timeline for when it will begin to raise short term interest rates in 2022. 美联储即将做出决定, 推荐十大正规网赌网站会给银行股票, 上周，由于欧米克隆的担忧导致收益率下跌，该基金撤出了投资, 再一看, as they could benefit from a more-hawkish central bank and the likely resultant higher lending rates.
If the expectation is that bond yields will move higher next year, 随着美联储变得不那么宽松, one would think that the high-growth stocks would not do as well. 然而, the market seems to have priced a few 2022 interest-rate hikes into valuations, and if the monetary tightening takes place as the economy 继续s to grow, 在美国持续走强的情况下，人们的期望是什么.S. 消费者, 盈利报告依然稳健, the investment community may be able to take a less supportive central bank and higher rates in stride. Opportunities may be found 在 companies that possess strong balance sheets, 并产生充足的现金流. Such companies would be in a position to buy back their shares at lower prices in the event a market correction eventually occurs. Investors like such repurchases both because they tend to stabilize the stock price, and over time raise earnings per share since there will be fewer shares outstanding. 说对了，制药巨头 CVS健康 (CVS) announced this morning that it will resume its share-repurchase activity. -威廉·克. 弗格森
在写这篇文章的时候, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.